Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+107/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +159 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a big 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-most run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 48.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.3 plays per game.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to run the ball near the end zone, accounting for 40.9% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (97th percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-least TDs in football (0.57 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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