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Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+111/-151).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +158 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 47.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.

Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the end zone, accounting for 33.3% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (97th percentile among QBs).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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