Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+133/-181).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -179 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.8% red zone run rate.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 40.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (83rd percentile among QBs).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Jalen Hurts has run for 0.35 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among quarterbacks (97th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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