Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tennessee Titans · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+107/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +127 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 51.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the goal line, accounting for 39.2% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (100th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have run for the least TDs in football (0.27 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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