Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+117/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to run the ball himself near the goal line, accounting for 41.8% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (100th percentile among QBs).
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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