Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+124/-169).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 50.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 39.5% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (100th percentile among QBs).
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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