Jalen Hurts Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-181).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a giant 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 49.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
Jalen Hurts isn't afraid to be involved in the run game near the goal line, accounting for 38.5% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone rush attempts this year (97th percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-least TDs in the NFL (0.44 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 6th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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