Jalen Hurts Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jalen Hurts

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Completions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jalen Hurts has attempted 37.4 throws per game this year, checking in at the 84th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Jalen Hurts's 69.0% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a substantial progression in his passing accuracy over last year's 66.0% figure.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a mere 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Dallas's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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