Jalen Hurts Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jalen Hurts

QB · Philadelphia Eagles

Completions

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Hurts Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-138/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has given their quarterback 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
THE BLITZ projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 32.4 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (67.0%).