Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Jalen Guyton

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jalen Guyton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-130/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.3% pass rate.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Jalen Guyton has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (82.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (13.8%).
Jalen Guyton has accrued a monstrous 55.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to WRs.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of CBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
With a feeble 35.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (10th percentile) this year, Jalen Guyton ranks as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among wideouts.
With a poor 3.6 adjusted yards per target (10th percentile) this year, Jalen Guyton places as one of the worst WRs in the game in football.
The New England Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.