Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jaleel McLaughlin

NFL · Player Props

Jaleel McLaughlin

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-106/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 4th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
With a fantastic record of 5.98 adjusted yards per carry (97th percentile), Jaleel McLaughlin ranks among the leading running backs in the NFL this year.
Jaleel McLaughlin profiles as one of the top RBs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 3.84 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 95th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
The Vikings defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 3.83 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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