Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Jakobi Meyers has run a route on 91.3% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The predictive model expects Jakobi Meyers to total 7.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the best in football this year.
With a stellar 5.0 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) this year, Jakobi Meyers places as one of the leading WRs in the league in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
Jakobi Meyers's 64.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a significant regression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 72.6% mark.

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