Jakobi Meyers Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to accumulate 8.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.4% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.