Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +206.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Jakobi Meyers has accumulated a whopping 76.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers's 58.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for WRs.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.