Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 1:05 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-310).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Jakobi Meyers has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Jakobi Meyers has accumulated a monstrous 75.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among WRs.
Jakobi Meyers's 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 89th percentile for WRs.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-most passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 1.32 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 57.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (64.1%).
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.