Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-343).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +224 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +221.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jakobi Meyers has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers has totaled a colossal 72.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs.
Jakobi Meyers's 55.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 87th percentile for WRs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 1.11 per game since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 60.3 plays per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.