Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+276/-470).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +276 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +276.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jakobi Meyers has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.5% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers's 60.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 89th percentile for wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.9% to 79.0%.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Jakobi Meyers has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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