Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jakobi Meyers

NFL · Player Props

Jakobi Meyers

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Jakobi Meyers Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-419).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -314 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -419.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Jakobi Meyers has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers has accumulated a colossal 71.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers's 55.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 86th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 8th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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