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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cowboys are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 63.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.

In this game, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among TEs with 7.3 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Cowboys profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's LB corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.

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