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Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.The Cowboys are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.7% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have 133.0 total plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.4 plays per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.When talking about protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.Jake Ferguson profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, completing a measly 72.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.6%) to TEs this year (70.6%).As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Philadelphia's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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