Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

My Account Log Out

reorder

Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to notch 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jake Ferguson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 84.5% to 38.2%.
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

More Jake Ferguson Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow