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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.2 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

Jake Ferguson's 75.4% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a material improvement in his pass game volume over last season's 18.3% figure.

This week, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 92nd percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a giant 13.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Jake Ferguson's 72.3% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 84.5% figure.

This year, the daunting Washington Commanders defense has given up a mere 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.

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