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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-154/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -154.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

The model projects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average).

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Jake Ferguson has been used less as a potential target this year (74.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (18.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Cowboys being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Jake Ferguson's 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a noteable diminishment in his receiving talent over last season's 84.5% figure.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.7%) versus TEs this year (68.7%).

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