Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to accumulate 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.

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