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Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-120/-108).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Cowboys are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 63.2% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.The predictive model expects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.The Dallas Cowboys have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.In this game, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 93rd percentile among TEs with 7.3 targets.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Cowboys profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.Jake Ferguson's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling just 7.13 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.15 rate last year.The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) to TEs this year.The 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's LB corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the league.
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