Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (41.1 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Jake Ferguson to earn 5.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Jake Ferguson has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing game this season (14.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).

Favors Under

At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
Jake Ferguson's 79.5% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a substantial decline in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 84.5% rate.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Philadelphia's unit has been great this year, profiling as the 8th-best in football.

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