Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cowboys offensive gameplan to tilt 3.5% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cowboys are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Jake Ferguson to earn 5.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Jake Ferguson's 14.9% Target Rate this year conveys a noteable gain in his pass attack volume over last year's 4.5% rate.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Jake Ferguson's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 84.5% mark.

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