Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
The projections expect Jake Ferguson to total 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Jake Ferguson's 17.1% Target Share this season marks a an impressive improvement in his air attack workload over last season's 4.5% mark.
Jake Ferguson has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (26.0 per game) than he did last year (4.0 per game).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Jake Ferguson's 76.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a a noteworthy decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 84.5% mark.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (65.4%) versus tight ends this year (65.4%).
This year, the formidable Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a puny 3.4 YAC.