Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.43 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jake Ferguson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.5% to 53.9%.
Jake Ferguson's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, compiling just 3.03 yards-per-target compared to a 8.06 figure last year.
Jake Ferguson has been among the worst tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 16th percentile.