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Jake Ferguson
NFL · Player Props
Jake Ferguson
TE · Dallas Cowboys
Receiving Yards
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023 Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -112.

Favors Over
  • The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.43 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.8% in games he has played).
Favors Under
  • The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Jake Ferguson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.5% to 53.9%.
  • Jake Ferguson's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, compiling just 3.03 yards-per-target compared to a 8.06 figure last year.
  • Jake Ferguson has been among the worst tight ends in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 16th percentile.
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