Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to notch 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (15.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.5% in games he has played).
The New York Jets defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in football (56.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jake Ferguson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 84.5% to 38.2%.
Jake Ferguson's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, averaging just 2.60 yards-per-target compared to a 8.07 mark last year.

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