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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.2 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

Jake Ferguson's 75.4% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a material improvement in his pass game volume over last season's 18.3% figure.

This week, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 92nd percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys are a giant 13.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Jake Ferguson's 72.3% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 84.5% figure.

The Commanders defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 40.0) versus tight ends this year.

The Commanders pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 6.66 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in football.

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