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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Cowboys this year (a colossal 60.8 per game on average).

This week, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.1 targets.

Jake Ferguson has been a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this season (16.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Jake Ferguson's 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.5% mark.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 6.90 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's group of safeties has been terrific this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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