Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys as the 8th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Jake Ferguson to accrue 5.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Jake Ferguson's 15.6% Target Share this season indicates a meaningful progression in his air attack utilization over last season's 4.5% figure.

Favors Under

Jake Ferguson's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 84.5% to 72.2%.
The Bills linebackers rank as the 9th-best unit in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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