Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to earn 5.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Opposing squads have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Cowboys defense this year, averaging 28.19 seconds per play.
Jake Ferguson's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 84.5% to 72.8%.

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