Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offense to tilt 6.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (63.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cowboys.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Cowboys, who are a huge favorite by 13.5 points.
Jake Ferguson's 75.4% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.5% figure.
This year, the tough Washington Commanders defense has yielded a puny 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best in football.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against TEs this year, yielding 6.51 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.

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