Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offensive gameplan to lean 6.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
In this contest, Jake Ferguson is predicted by the projections to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.3 targets.
Jake Ferguson's 15.9% Target% this season signifies a noteworthy progression in his pass game utilization over last season's 4.5% mark.

Favors Under

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are heavily favored in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.
Jake Ferguson's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 84.5% to 75.4%.
This year, the tough Carolina Panthers defense has yielded a meager 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.