Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (77%) versus TEs this year (77.0%).
The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against tight ends this year, giving up 8.98 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league.
The New York Giants linebackers project as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.4% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.