Jake Ferguson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-4500).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has allowed their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have utilized play action on a lowly 23.6% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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