Jake Ferguson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1500/-10000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Completion% in football (74.8%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.8%).

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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