Jake Browning TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jake Browning

NFL · Player Props

Jake Browning

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jake Browning TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (66.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 138.0 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
The model projects Jake Browning to throw 37.7 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
Jake Browning rates as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a remarkable 78.2% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a measly 56.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.0 per game) this year.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year.
The Colts defense has conceded the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.08 per game this year.

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