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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

Jahmyr Gibbs has run a route on 52.3% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.

The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to earn 4.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.

With a stellar 2.8 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs stands among the leading RBs in the pass game in the league.

Jahmyr Gibbs's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.7% to 80.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

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