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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a massive 58.8 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by the projections to rank in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.

With a remarkable 2.7 adjusted catches per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the leading RB receiving threats in football.

Jahmyr Gibbs's 82.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a noteworthy improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 73.7% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.6% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 126.1 total plays called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs's 16.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 22.1.

This year, the tough Bills defense has surrendered a measly 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 4th-best rate in football.

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