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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by the model to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.

With a terrific 2.5 adjusted receptions per game (75th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs has been as one of the best running backs in the pass game in football.

Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.7% to 80.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

Jahmyr Gibbs has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (48.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (58.9%).

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