Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Lions this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 91st percentile among RBs with 4.7 targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 24.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 98th percentile for running backs.
The Detroit offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

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