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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

In this week's contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by the model to land in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.7 targets.

With a remarkable 22.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the leading pass-game RBs in football.

Jahmyr Gibbs's 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a substantial improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 73.7% rate.

Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 7.67 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 4.64 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Lions are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Chicago Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.

Jahmyr Gibbs's 15.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 22.1.

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