Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 24, 2024 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 66.4 total plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to notch 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs comes in as one of the top RB receiving threats this year, averaging a fantastic 24.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Jahmyr Gibbs's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 73.7% to 81.3%.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a huge 7-point favorite this week.
The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 16.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 22.1.
The Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

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