Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.0 targets.
In regards to air yards, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the towering 91st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a remarkable 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a superb 22.6 figure this year.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Lions offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.64 seconds per snap.
With a bad 4.0 adjusted yards per target (21st percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the worst RB receiving threats in the NFL.
With a poor 3.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (17th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks among the top RB receiving threats in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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