Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 7, 2023 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs has compiled a staggering 4.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
Jahmyr Gibbs's 22.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 95th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.
With a feeble 3.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (12th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs places among the top RB receiving threats in the league in the open field.
This year, the strong Carolina Panthers defense has conceded a mere 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 10th-fewest in the league.