Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jahmyr Gibbs to total 5.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Jahmyr Gibbs has been responsible for a monstrous 3.6% of his offense's air yards this year: 96th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (83.8%) versus RBs since the start of last season (83.8%).

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.94 seconds per play.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.86 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

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