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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+105/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 6.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • With an exceptional 16.4% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.4% pass rate.
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.
  • The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) to running backs this year.
  • The Saints pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.3%) to RBs this year (72.3%).

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