Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+105/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 6.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With an exceptional 16.4% Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates among the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.4% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 7th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) to running backs this year.
The Saints pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.3%) to RBs this year (72.3%).

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